Iran is on the brink. The economic war waged by the Americans is taking its toll.

By Markus Somm

The Facts: As a result of the U.S. blockade, Iran is losing $400 million to $500 million in revenue every day.

Why this matters: This country will soon collapse—and with it, its lousy regime.

Anyone who follows the Western media almost inevitably gets the impression that Iran must be a wonderland. Ayatollah in Wonderland. Although the Americans have been sanctioning, blockading, and bombing Iran for months, it seems unsinkable—just like the Titanic once was.

• Until the iceberg came.
• And in the case of the Islamist caliphate, that would likely be the economy.

In fact, it’s all over.

Inflation has reached astronomical levels, unemployment has soared to staggering heights, and food shortages have hit rock bottom. Unless a famine breaks out soon, the mullahs must truly have privileged access to God.

Meanwhile, the value of the currency has plummeted:

• To buy one dollar, an Iranian now has to count out more than 2 million rials to shell out —though it seems questionable whether “shell out” is still the right term. They’d need a bulldozer to haul in the necessary bills. For a single dollar!
• In January, the exchange rate was still 1.4 million to one dollar; it was 750,000 in 2024 and 70,000 to one dollar in 2018—shortly after Donald Trump withdrew from the Iran deal.

Although the Iranian currency has not yet plummeted as far as the German mark did in the 1920s—when, at its lowest point in November 1923, one dollar was worth 4.2 trillion marks —it is well on its way there.

In other words, by all human standards, Iran cannot hold out much longer. The American blockade—particularly of Iranian ports, aimed at preventing any oil exports—is having an impact, even if most Western journalists do not seem to realize it.

Last week, the head of the Iranian Central Bank admitted that Iranian oil exports had dropped to zero. Zero point zero.

• For that reason alone, Iran is losing $400 million to $500 million in revenue every single day.
• Money it desperately needed —for weapons, ammunition, missiles, and, most recently, food.
• There has long been no question of food security in Iran. There is a shortage of everything.

The fact that the Iranian people have not yet overthrown the regime shows just how paralyzed they still are. From the regime’s perspective, the massacres it carried out against its own people in January to crush the numerous, powerful demonstrations have “paid off.”

The henchmen, torturers, and state-sanctioned killers have done a thorough job—so much so that today, no Iranian dares to start another uprising. Or to put it another way: Anyone who was a dissident and brave is long dead.

• According to various estimates, the regime had between 7,000 and 20,000 demonstrators killed in January 2026.

Nevertheless, the regime is faltering.

As can be seen from the official statements:

• None other than Iranian President Massud Peseschkian stated last Friday:
  “The war must end at some point,” and confirmed that Iran is suffering from economic hardships.
• Just one day earlier, Iranian Parliament Speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf had already admitted:
  “No matter how much military power we have, if the people are hungry and we no longer have a financial cycle, economic growth, or domestic production, we will not survive.”

The fact that these politicians dare to share such bad news with the public reveals just how hopeless the situation must be. No one can overlook it. Everyone knows it.

Seen in this light, the Americans are finally doing the right thing. They are now resolutely taking the steps they should have taken back in February: They are imposing on Iran what is likely the most comprehensive boycott any country has ever had to endure.

On Monday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent addressed the media for this purpose and declared all-out economic war, referring to it as an “economic D-Day.”

Iran’s banks, Iran’s exports, Iran’s imports, Iran’s travel: all of this will be blocked by the U.S. in the future, and Bessent warned that any country that helps Iran circumvent the boycotts would face a kind of economic Armageddon.

• With one exception—Trump’s Achilles’ heel: China.
• Although the communists there have long since revealed themselves to be Iran’s most loyal allies.

It will be interesting to see how much longer Trump will let his supposedly “good friend” Xi Jinping lead him by the nose.

Zero point zero. As long as Iran can barely sell any oil, the regime is nevertheless doomed.

The Americans just need patience—something their president, as is well known, possesses only in micro-doses.

Or, to quote Leo Tolstoy, the great Russian writer:

“The two most powerful warriors are patience and time.”

Markus Somm is the editor-in-chief of*Nebelspalter*.